Pakistan wants to join the BRICS. There has been speculation for a while, but on Thursday their foreign ministry confirmed it. The application has been filed, and it is now up to BRICS members to decide if Pakistan can join the group. However, if even one member disagrees, Pakistan’s membership will be blocked.
Will India agree?
India and Pakistan are both members of other groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), but joining the SCO was different. India and Pakistan joined the SCO in the same year, and neither side had to approve the other. However, for BRICS, Pakistan needs India’s approval.
BRICS expansion has been a controversial issue. China and Russia have been pushing for it, but India is not keen. For India, BRICS is about multipolarity and giving voice to the global south. But for Russia and China, BRICS is an anti-America club.
At this year’s BRICS summit, six new members were formally invited to join: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, and Argentina. These are countries that India can work with, so New Delhi agreed to give them membership. Could Pakistan be next? Not if India opposes it. All BRICS decisions are taken unanimously, meaning every member has a veto. So India can block Pakistan’s membership.
In fact, in 2022, China hosted the BRICS summit and invited a number of developing countries for a BRICS Plus dialogue. However, Pakistan did not get the invite. Pakistan accused India of blocking their participation.
Reports say that Pakistan is hoping for Russian support this time. Moscow is chairing the BRICS summit in 2024, so they will play a key role in deciding possible member candidates. Only Russia can make India rethink. South Africa and Brazil are not close enough to New Delhi, and China is out of the question. So, Pakistan is looking to Moscow for support, but it’s a long shot.
Now, let’s put the India-Pakistan equation aside and objectively consider if Pakistan is a good candidate for BRICS. Pakistan is currently dependent on bailouts from the International Monetary Fund. Their inflation is over 31%, their democracy exists only on paper, and they have a high national debt. They do not bring much to the table right now.
Pakistan is a known sponsor of terrorism, its politics is unstable, its military leadership is questionable, and its national debt is too high. If they join BRICS, they will be the weakest link in the chain.
However, Islamabad sees BRICS as an opportunity. BRICS represents around 41% of the global population, 24% of the global GDP, and 16% of global trade. Pakistan sees joining BRICS as a way to open up more opportunities for trade, investments, and political support.
China also wants Pakistan to join BRICS because it would mean having two seats at the same table. This gives India more reason to be wary. The next BRICS summit is in October 2024, and Russia will be finalizing the candidate list. There is no extension, it’s a simple yes or no decision.